I’ve often told learners that the climate crisis is leading to increasing migration. In fact, I’ve suggested that the number of migrants reaching more affluent countries today will be dwarfed by the number moving across international borders as the climate deteriorates further. This seems to be the accepted belief, reinforced by most media outlets.
But I realise I may have been making some inappropriate assumptions and, in turn, passing on these ideas to learners on our courses.
There is no doubt that climate breakdown leads to drought, crop failure and hunger; or floods; or other extreme weather conditions. These, in turn, force people to leave their homes. But does this lead to cross-border migration?
Hein de Haas, Sociology Professor at the University of Amsterdam has, in his book, “How migration really works”, encouraged me to examine these assumptions again.
Professor de Haas suggests that the popular idea that illegal migration is out of control is incorrect as there’s evidence that most migrants who move from the global south to the global north continue to do so legally. What is changing, however, is that the legal channels allowing such migration are being closed. If this trend continues, we may see an increase in illegal migration as genuine asylum seekers and other migrants try to find ways to reach their desired destination.
Rather than migration increasing due to drought, crop failure and hunger, or extreme weather conditions it increases as countries become richer. Increasing levels of income and education alongside infrastructure improvements raise people’s capabilities and aspirations to migrate. Rather than being a desperate flight from misery, migration is generally an investment in the long-term well-being of families and requires significant resources.
If you’re not sure about this, just think about the amounts reported to be paid to people traffickers! And families appear willing to pay more than once if an initial attempt to reach the desired destination fails.
Poverty, on the other hand, deprives people of the resources to move long distances. These unfortunate people are barely able to reach the nearest refugee camp or international aid zone and are certainly unable to cross continents.
This is why climate breakdown may not, in fact, trigger mass movements of “climate refugees”. Research into the effects of droughts and floods shows that most people stay close to home. The most vulnerable people are the most likely to get trapped, unable to move anywhere.
Professor de Haas indicates that international migrants account for less than 3% of the world’s population. This figure hasn’t changed much for around 50 years. About 10% of international migrants are refugees, representing only 0.3% of the world’s population. 80 to 85% of refugees stay in their region of origin, migrating internally. They will only cross borders if the borders are close.
So: are we wrong to think that climate breakdown will lead to increased international migration? In common with most aspects of the climate and other, associated crises, we can’t consider migration in isolation. We need to think about it alongside broader debates around inequality, labour markets, social justice and, more broadly, an understanding of the type of society we want to live in.